As the world watches the brutal conflict in Ukraine escalate to alarming new heights, the timing of Russia’s intensified assault cannot be dismissed as coincidental. Vladimir Putin appears to be working with a clear objective: seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated in January. With Trump’s well-documented admiration for Putin, his past dismissal of Ukraine’s sovereignty, and his disdain for NATO, Putin has every reason to believe that his strategic calculus will pay off.
The Kremlin’s playbook is simple but shrewd. By launching a massive offensive in recent weeks, Putin is not only testing the resilience of Ukraine but also undermining its allies’ resolve. Russia’s latest assaults have showcased unprecedented intensity, with waves of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, plunging the nation further into darkness as winter tightens its grip. Each strike adds to Russia’s leverage in future negotiations, and every captured inch of Ukrainian soil bolsters its territorial claims.
Trump’s past rhetoric likely emboldens Putin. Early in the war, Trump infamously praised Russia’s invasion as “genius,” suggesting it was a masterstroke of geopolitical chess. He has also floated the idea that Ukraine might need to “make a deal” by ceding territory—a notion that is music to Putin’s ears. Trump’s repeated hostility toward NATO and his threats to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance create an undercurrent of fear among European allies. If Ukraine finds itself isolated or unable to count on robust American support, Putin’s hand only grows stronger.
For Putin, the window of opportunity between now and January represents a strategic golden hour. He understands that Trump’s foreign policy may look drastically different from that of the Biden administration, which has rallied NATO and provided billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine. Under Trump, the U.S. could pressure Ukraine to negotiate from a position of weakness, backed by the implicit or explicit threat of withdrawing critical Western support. The looming spectre of a fractured NATO would give Russia unparalleled freedom to consolidate its hold over occupied territories without fear of military retaliation from the alliance.
The implications of Putin’s strategy extend beyond Ukraine’s borders. A coerced Ukrainian surrender would send shockwaves through Eastern Europe, casting doubt on NATO’s collective security guarantees. Nations like Poland, the Baltic states, and even non-NATO members such as Finland would face a chilling reality: if Putin can redraw Europe’s borders through aggression and exploitation of Western divisions, no country on Russia’s periphery is truly safe.
At its core, Putin’s gambit is built on two interwoven pillars: land and leverage. By the time Trump takes office, Putin hopes to have amassed a commanding territorial advantage, coupled with the expectation that the new U.S. administration will prioritise a quick resolution over Ukraine’s long-term sovereignty. The groundwork for this pressure campaign has been laid over years of Trump’s public remarks, Putin’s military manoeuvres, and the erosion of Western consensus on supporting Kyiv indefinitely.
The West now faces a pivotal test of its commitment to Ukraine and the values of sovereignty and self-determination. European nations must brace for the possibility of diminished U.S. leadership under Trump and prepare to shoulder a greater share of the burden in countering Russian aggression. Ukraine, meanwhile, will need to hold firm against the crushing tide of war as its allies navigate an uncertain geopolitical landscape.
Putin’s strategy is transparent, ruthless, and deeply opportunistic. But history has shown that autocrats often gamble on the complacency of democracies. Whether the West can rise to meet this moment will determine not only Ukraine’s fate but also the stability of Europe for decades to come. If the Kremlin succeeds in cementing its territorial conquests with tacit U.S. approval, it will set a dangerous precedent that could unravel the international order and embolden aggressors everywhere.
The clock is ticking, and the stakes could not be higher. The world must recognise Putin’s land grab for what it is: a calculated rush to exploit a political vacuum, one that threatens to upend global security in ways we may not yet fully comprehend.
